Demand Forecasts and Demand Elasticities for Australian Transport Fuel
Occasional Paper 103
0 642 161 57 7
The study focuses on the current major transport fuels, which in 1988–89 accounted for 93 per cent of Australia's transport sector energy consumption: petrol (leaded and unleaded), automotive diesel oil, fuel oil and aviation turbine fuel. Major demand forecasts examined include those of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research and the Australian Institute of Petroleum, based on forecasts by oil companies, to the year 2000. From an examination of these forecasts and derived own-price elasticities, the study concludes that only relatively large increases in fuel prices are likely to produce anything more than non-marginal reductions in the levels of fuel demand.
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